Did the $330M BTC Hacker Deliberately Double Down on Monero (XMR) Derivatives?
There’s something that stands out about Monday’s suspicious transfer of more than 3,520 BTC ($330.7 million) to privacy coin monero (XMR), a conversion that blockchain sleuth ZachXBT said was probably linked to a hack: coordinated activity in the derivatives market. Monero, which obscures the sender’s and recipient’s addresses to provide an untraceable currency, has limited liquidity on exchanges, which makes it harder for users to transact without affecting the market and exposes them to slippage, the chance of the price changing for the worse before the deal is finalized. The decision to go through an illiquid cryptocurrency is unusual. Tether’s USDT or ether (ETH) would have provided an easier, less-slippage-prone way of moving the funds about, and mixers such as Tornado Cash could help obscure the transaction path. Of course, stablecoins like USDT are also easier to intercept and freeze. Trading data, however, suggests there was more going on than a simple case of someone trying to launder stolen funds. The possible hacker very likely did encounter slippage during the transaction. Combined market depth, which measures order book liquidity over a given price range, was relatively low at around $1 million per 2% on both sides of the book. XRM surged by 45% due to the limited liquidity on exchanges, meaning they could have lost as much as 20% — $66 million — by purchasing XMR rather than a more-liquid token. For a more complete picture, take a look at derivative markets. While monero was surging, open interest — the number of outstanding futures and options contracts — in XMR on the main centralized exchanges more than doubled to $35.1 million, according to Coinalyze. A 45% rise in XMR’s price should have boosted open interest only to $24.2 million instead of the figure it ended up at. Taking into account the $1 million in liquidations, someone, or some people, were already long on XMR to the tune of $11 million. While the price increase on that holding wouldn’t have compensated for the full amount of slippage, it would help soften the blow. Moreover the figure doesn’t take into account any positions that might have existed in decentralized exchanges, and let’s not forget the funds were probably stolen in the first place, so the (assumed) perpetrators are still a couple of million dollars ahead. This is not the first time bad actors have flooded spot purchases to move the derivative needle. Last month a trader manipulated JELLY prices on decentralized exchange HyperLiquid. They bought JELLY on illiquid exchanges, tricking the pricing oracle to feed an inaccurate price to HyperLiquid and thus generating profit for holders of long positions. Both cases draw similarities to the $114 million exploit on Mango Markets in 2022, which involved a trader named Avi Eisenberg manipulating MNGO prices by borrowing assets using ill-gotten gains as collateral. Eisenberg was found guilty by a jury in 2024 and faces 20 years in prison.
Monero (XMR) Price Jumps 50% Amid ‘Suspicious’ $330 Million BTC Transfer – Details
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. An analyst has suggested that Monero (XMR) could repeat its 2021 cycle-high amid its recent price jump. However, a renowned on-chain sleuth has linked the surge to suspicious Bitcoin (BTC) transactions. Related Reading Monero Soars After $330 Million BTC Theft Privacy and security-focused token Monero saw its price soar 52% to a four-year high on Monday. The cryptocurrency surged from its recently reclaimed $220-$230 support toward the $340 resistance, hitting $347 in the early hours of Monday. Amid the massive surge, on-chain detective ZachXBT has linked the pump to a “suspicious transfer” from a potential victim of social engineering. The crypto sleuth explained that a suspicious transfer of 3,520 BTC, worth around $330.7 million, was made on Sunday night. On-chain detective links Monero pump to BTC theft. Source: ZachXBT on X According to the post, the funds were laundered via more than 6 instant exchanges shortly after the initial transfer, being swapped for XMR, seemingly based on timing analysis and the Monero price jump. An X user suggested the stolen Bitcoin was “likely from the Bitstamp hack that occurred in 2014.” The internet detective denied the idea, stating that the victim was likely an OG Bitcoiner. Meanwhile, others questioned whether the wallet owner made the transactions or if it was a theft. ZachXBT detailed multiple factors that led him to believe it was likely a theft, including the wallet being a longtime BTC holder and a Gemini, River, and Coinbase user. Additionally, he noted that the $330 million in Bitcoin was suddenly moved and transferred in small increments to instant exchanges, creating hundreds of orders. This would make the owner lose multiple 7-figures to fees, making it inefficient for a normal person. The crypto sleuth also considers that the theft isn’t likely related to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, which recently stole $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum (ETH) from crypto exchange Bybit. Is XMR Near A Breakout? Since the pump, Monero has retraced around 25% from today’s high to trade between the $250-$260 range. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that XMR has successfully retested its $214 range’s low as support amid the market recovery. Notably, the cryptocurrency has been moving within the $112-$214 price range since 2022, surging above the range’s resistance line amid the November post-US elections breakout. XMR retests key price range. Source: Rekt Capital on X After the Q3 2024 rally, Monero entered its key $214-286 range, which has previously worked as a key support and resistance area. After breaking out of the range’s upper boundary, the cryptocurrency rallied to its 2018 all-time high (ATH) of $542 and its 2021 high of $480. During the Q1 2025 retraces, the XMR dropped below the $214 mark, testing the $200 area as support before bouncing. Similarly, the early April pullback sent the cryptocurrency toward this level, finally reclaiming it two weeks ago. Since then, the cryptocurrency has rallied toward the $220-$230 range, fueled by the ongoing market recovery, but was ultimately rejected at the key resistance level. Today’s recent pump has seen Monero break above the $230 mark for the first time since February. Related Reading Despite the alleged laundering-driven surge, the analyst affirmed that the cryptocurrency has now “repeated early 2021 history,” where the token reclaimed its current range and retested its lower boundary before breaking out to cycle highs. If history repeats and XMR’s price holds its current range, it could position itself for a surge above the $300 barrier. Monero’s performance in the one-week chart. Source: XMRUSDT on TradingView Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Is It Time For Altcoin Season? Bitcoin Dominance Rises To Major Rejection Zone
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. Crypto analyst El Crypto has raised the possibility of an altcoin season happening soon. The analyst alluded to Bitcoin’s dominance rising to a major rejection zone, which could be bullish for altcoins. Altcoin Season May Be Imminent As Dominance Hits Major Rejection Zone In an X post, El Crypto suggested that the altcoin season may be imminent as Bitcoin’s dominance hits a major resistance zone. He revealed that BTC’s dominance again touched a zone that has led to rejection every time in the last one and a half years. He added that the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in the overbought area, while a bearish cross has now happened again. Related Reading Based on this, the analyst remarked that the market looks to be in for some fun, hinting at an altcoin season. Crypto analyst CryptoElites also affirmed that Bitcoin’s dominance has reached its peak. He further affirmed that next up is a massive altcoin rally, which will usher in the alt season. Source: CryptoElites on X In another X post, the crypto analyst alluded to the USDT and USDC dominance ratio. He claimed that the market was at a critical trend reaction point right now. CryptoElites then mentioned that if the stablecoins’ dominance breaks down, then the altcoin season will officially begin. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital also looked to provide a bullish outlook towards the altcoin season. In an X post, he highlighted the global liquidity index overlaid with the Dogecoin price. In line with this, he remarked that it might be time for market participants to start paying attention to this. So far, altcoins have been mirroring Bitcoin’s price action, suffering a similar downtrend amid the trade war. However, if the altcoin season were to kick into full gear, these altcoins could easily decouple from the flagship crypto and outperform. Ethereum is known to lead this altcoin season, but that may not be the case this time, as ETH has underperformed throughout this cycle. Still Bitcoin Season For Now Blockchain Center data shows that it is still Bitcoin season for now, as the flagship crypto continues to outperform most altcoins. In the past 90 days, only seven out of the top 50 coins have outperformed the flagship crypto. These coins include Mantra, GateToken, Monero, LEO, Tron, and FastToken. Related Reading For it to be altcoin season, 75% of the top 50 coins would need to outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Although almost all coins have witnessed declines within this timeframe, BTC has suffered a 22% drop, which is less than what these altcoins have seen during this period. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $80,900, down over 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Total market cap excluding Bitcoin at $939.29 billion | Source: TOTAL2 on Tradingview.com Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com