Bitcoin Still Far From A True Supply Shock, Analyst Explains
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin (BTC) is “still far from a true supply shock.” The analyst cited several on-chain metrics to argue that despite declining exchange reserves, the leading cryptocurrency is unlikely to face genuine supply scarcity in the near term. Bitcoin Supply Shock? Not Just Yet Since April 21, BTC has been trading within a tight range between $91,500 and $95,800, offering few signals about its next directional move. While some analysts have repeatedly highlighted a potential supply shock that could drive Bitcoin’s price much higher, Aleman’s analysis offers a more cautious outlook. Related Reading According to Aleman, BTC reserves on centralized exchanges (CEXs) have declined steadily over the past year. Specifically, reserves dropped from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11, to 2,490,318 BTC as of April 28 – marking a 15.35% decrease in just five months. Source: CryptoQuant During the same period, Bitcoin’s Realized Capitalization – a metric that calculates the total value of BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved – has surged from $669.32 billion to $883.03 billion. This reflects an increase in the actual capital invested in the Bitcoin network, rather than market speculation alone. Source: CryptoQuant Aleman explains that as BTC becomes more “expensive,” a purchase of approximately 500,000 BTC at current prices could potentially drive the cryptocurrency’s price to $130,000–$140,000. However, he cautions that such a scenario would likely trigger significant selling pressure from miners. He adds: This behavior could counteract the decline in exchange reserves, since historically, miners tend to sell more as the price goes up. So even if reserves keep falling, a price surge would likely encourage enough selling to partially offset that drop. The analyst concludes that a true supply shock in this market cycle is unlikely unless Bitcoin sees a massive influx of capital – enough to push its Realized Capitalization to three or four times its current level. Technicals Point Toward BTC Breakout Despite the low probability of a supply-driven rally, all is not lost for the leading digital asset. Several technical indicators point toward an impending bullish rally for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading Notably, Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently broke a long-standing downward trendline, indicating a potential momentum shift. This development could help BTC reclaim the $100,000 mark in the coming weeks. In addition, recent on-chain data shows that short-term holders are refraining from selling their BTC – even while in the red – which may signal growing investor confidence and a potential bullish reversal. At press time, BTC trades at $94,374, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours. BTC trades at $94,374 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin Demand Momentum Yet To Recover From Deep Negative Zone, Analyst Says
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. Despite Bitcoin (BTC) gaining notable traction over the past week – rising from approximately $85,000 on April 21 to nearly $95,000 today – the top cryptocurrency’s Demand Momentum remains significantly subdued, signalling caution among investors. Bitcoin Demand Momentum Continues To Be In Negative Zone According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by analyst Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s 30-day Demand Momentum is still firmly in negative territory. Currently, the 30-day Demand Momentum stands at around -483,860 BTC, while the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the same metric is hovering near -310,700 BTC. Source: CryptoQuant.com Related Reading To clarify, the 30-day Demand Momentum is calculated by subtracting the 30-day Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply from the 30-day Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply. This metric effectively measures the net shift in active demand for BTC. A rise in short-term holder supply relative to long-term holders implies that market participants are increasingly opting to speculate rather than hold Bitcoin for the long haul. Trading in the negative zone suggests waning demand from short-term investors. This could be attributed to profit-taking – especially after BTC’s recent 10% rally over the past seven days – or lingering market uncertainty amid global economic concerns, including renewed trade tariff tensions. Furthermore, the market is experiencing a dynamic where long-term holders are absorbing fewer BTC than what short-term holders are distributing. According to Crazzyblockk, such behavior is commonly observed during late-cycle distribution phases or macro-level consolidation periods. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has previously experienced similar deep negative divergences in Demand Momentum, specifically during mid-2021 and the second quarter of 2022. In both instances, these divergences were followed by sharp price pullbacks. On an optimistic note, the ensuing market recovery on both the instances coincided with market bottoms. They also marked the resumption of sustainable bullish momentum in the following months. If Bitcoin can reverse this negative demand trend and push the metric back into positive territory, it could signal a strong resurgence in investor conviction. A return to the “green zone” would likely mark a renewed uptrend, potentially pushing BTC to a new all-time high (ATH) in the near term. Positive Signs Emerging For BTC While Demand Momentum remains weak, other market signals suggest that Bitcoin could be nearing a trend reversal. For example, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand – a separate on-chain metric – has recently shown a sharp rebound, hinting at a possible return of buying pressure. Related Reading Additionally, BTC exchange reserves continue to decline rapidly. According to recent data, Bitcoin just recorded its highest exchange withdrawal volume in two years. This ongoing depletion of exchange-held BTC could lead to a supply squeeze, further supporting bullish price action. Technical indicators also point toward the possibility of BTC testing its current ATH of $108,786. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $94,773, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours. BTC trades at $94,773 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin Must Clear This Critical Cost Basis Level For Continued Upside, Analyst Says
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, contributor Crazzyblockk highlighted key Bitcoin (BTC) cost basis zones that the leading cryptocurrency must clear – or avoid breaking below – to sustain its bullish momentum. Analyst Highlights Key Bitcoin Cost Basis Zones Bitcoin is beginning to show signs of newfound strength, with the top digital asset surging nearly 3.5% over the past week and trading in the high $80,000 range at the time of writing. BTC’s rise amid the global equity market downturn has reignited discussions about the cryptocurrency’s potential to ‘decouple’ from traditional markets. Related Reading In a recent Quicktake post, CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk outlined Bitcoin’s various cost basis zones and realized price cohorts to identify key resistance and support levels. The analyst noted that short-term holders – those who have held BTC for less than 155 days – currently have their realized price, or average cost, sitting at the $91,500 resistance level. Crazzyblockk added that this group tends to be the most price-sensitive. On the other hand, the cost basis for new holders – those who have held the digital asset for one to three months – currently has its strongest support level around $83,700. The analyst pointed out that this level represents the cost basis of recent market participants, who often lead short-term trend changes. To clarify, cost basis zones are price levels where a significant amount of BTC was last moved or acquired. A potential breakout above the short-term holders’ realized price would suggest new bullish momentum, as these holders would be back in profit and less likely to sell their holdings. Conversely, a break below the new holders’ cost basis support level could signal potential downside movement, as recent buyers might begin incurring losses and be forced to capitulate. Notably, each cost basis line highlighted in the chart below is calculated based on the realized price of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) held within a specific age band. Similarly, realized price is determined by dividing the total value of all UTXOs by the number of coins. Source: CryptoQuant Are Investors Expecting Further Upside? Recent on-chain analysis suggests that BTC holders may be anticipating further upside. Short-term holders appear to be holding onto their BTC despite being in a loss position. Related Reading Additionally, crypto exchange net flow data hints that a BTC price rally may be imminent. Some analysts are also drawing parallels to gold’s recent historic price action and predicting that ‘digital gold’ may soon experience similar momentum. That said, Bitcoin futures index sentiment is pointing toward rising pessimism surrounding BTC, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty. As of press time, BTC is trading at $88,759, up 1.7% in the last 24 hours. BTC trades at $88,759 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin Rally Ahead? Analysts Say These Key Indicators Look Bullish
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. Bitcoin (BTC) posted modest gains earlier today, trading above $87,000 for the first time since April 1. Crypto analysts now suggest that BTC may be on the verge of a sustained rally, as several key indicators are flashing bullish signals. Bitcoin Rally Ahead? These Indicators Say Yes According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post published today, BTC is showing multiple short-term bullish signals, fuelling optimism that a breakout above $90,000 could be imminent. Related Reading In their analysis, CryptoQuant contributor EgyHash highlighted two key indicators that hint at bullish reversal for the apex cryptocurrency. First, the contributor outlined BTC’s Exchange Inflow metric. EgyHash noted that exchange inflows – the amount of BTC being deposited into exchanges – have dropped significantly in recent months. Since peaking at 120,000 in November 2024, the metric has seen a sharp decline, suggesting that holders are choosing not to move their BTC to exchanges, thereby potentially reducing sell pressure. The chart below shows a consistent drop in exchange inflows since November 2024, despite BTC’s price gains in December 2024 and January 2025. As of now, exchange inflows sit around 9,300. Source: CryptoQuant In addition, EgyHash pointed out that Bitcoin’s open interest has surged by $6 billion over the past two weeks. This rise has been accompanied by a positive shift in funding rates, signalling a bullish market outlook. Source: CryptoQuant To explain, a rise in open interest shows that more money is flowing into BTC futures or perpetual contracts, indicating increased trader participation and confidence. Similarly, positive funding rates suggest that long positions – bets on BTC price going up – are dominant, and traders are willing to pay a premium to hold these positions. That said, there is some caution to be considered here. If the BTC derivatives market becomes too leveraged, then it may increase the risk of a sharp price correction due to mass liquidations. BTC Breaks Multi-Month Downtrend In a separate X post, crypto analyst Rekt Capital brought attention to BTC breaking out of a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart. Typically, a breakout from the falling wedge pattern indicates a bullish reversal, hinting that the asset’s price may rise after a period of downward consolidation. Related Reading Simultaneously, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 60 level, indicating renewed buying strength. That said, if RSI nears 60 but fails to push higher, it could also point to weakening momentum and a potential bull trap. Source: Rekt Capital on X Further, BTC’s futures sentiment index is showing signs of warning as the metric has been on a prolonged decline since February 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $87,386, up 3.4% in the past 24 hours. BTC trades at $87,386 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com
Bitcoin Undervalued? Analyst Breaks Down Bullish On-Chain Metrics
Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand. Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance. In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects. A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution. When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights. Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries. Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.
Ethereum Capitulation Nearing Its End? Key On-Chain Metric Reveals Insights
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. According to a recent X post by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum (ETH) may have already gone through its capitulation phase for this market cycle. Notably, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down more than 55% over the past year. Is Ethereum Capitulation Over? Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and SUI, Ethereum has endured a challenging two-year stretch. The cryptocurrency was trading at $1,892 exactly two years ago, on April 11, 2023, and is now priced around $1,560 – over 17% lower. Related Reading In contrast, BTC has surged from approximately $41,000 two years ago to $82,127 at the time of writing – an increase of nearly 100%. While SOL currently trades below its April 2023 price, unlike ETH, it did manage to reach a new all-time high (ATH) of $293 earlier this year in January. Understandably, sentiment toward ETH – among both retail and institutional investors – is hovering near all-time lows. However, Martinez believes that “smart money” may be accumulating at current levels, anticipating a near-term reversal. The analyst pointed out that Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow has recently dropped below one million. Martinez added: This historically indicates a macro bottom zone, meaning $ETH might be undervalued and long-term holders are less inclined to sell. It also suggests: sentiment is low, capitulation may have occurred, smart money might be accumulating. Source: ali_charts on X For the uninitiated, Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow is an on-chain metric that compares the market cap to the dormancy – the average age of ETH being moved – adjusted for unique entities instead of raw addresses. The metric helps identify whether the market is overheated or undervalued by tracking the behavior of long-term holders. If ETH follows historical trends, it may be approaching a momentum reversal. In a separate X post, crypto trader Merlijn The Trader suggested that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is nearing a peak, which could shift capital into altcoins and trigger a short-term rally. Source: Merlijn The Trader on X At the time of writing, BTC.D stands around 63.5%. A potential pivot by the US Federal Reserve toward quantitative easing (QE) could inject fresh liquidity into the market, possibly sparking a mini altcoin rally. Source: Bitcoin Dominance on TradingView.com ETH Demands Cautious Optimism While there are multiple signs that ETH may be close to bottoming out, some indicators suggest that there could be continued weakness for the digital asset before any meaningful momentum shift. Related Reading In a recent analysis, Martinez warned that ETH could fall as low as $1,200 if the current sell-off continues. Further, ongoing capital outflows from US-based spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) remain a concern for the asset’s short-term outlook. That said, crypto analyst NotWojak recently noted that ETH may be on the verge of a breakout, with a potential upside target of $1,835. At press time, ETH is trading at $1,557, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours. ETH trades at $1,557 on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from X and TradingView.com
Bitcoin Boom Still In Play? Analyst Predicts Final Leg Up
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post published earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) may not have reached the peak of the current market cycle just yet. A key on-chain metric suggests that there could be one final leg up for the leading cryptocurrency before this bull market concludes. Bitcoin To Hit New Peak Soon? Data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin has dropped more than 23% since reaching its most recent all-time high (ATH) of $108,786, on January 8. The top digital asset has largely been affected by ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly those related to US President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies. Related Reading Despite the pullback, CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan believes Bitcoin may still have room to run. In a recent Quicktake post, he pointed to the ratio of BTC volume traded over a six to 12-month period as a crucial indicator of the current market cycle’s progression. This ratio reflects the amount of new capital entering the crypto market during the cycle and has historically been tightly correlated with market movements. According to Crypto Dan: Typically, this ratio first declines, signalling the end of the early phase of the bull cycle. After some time, it declines again, reaching a lower level than the first drop, marking the end of the bull cycle. Following the first decline in the ratio, the market often regains bullish momentum. Subsequently, the second leg of the rally tends to attract latecomers and retail investors whose participation sends BTC to new highs. Finally, as market euphoria begins to peak and distribution phase begins, the volume ratio experiences a second, sharper decline. Finally, the second drop in the ratio marks the end of the bull cycle and precedes a significant market correction. According to the following chart, BTC hit a critical midpoint in March 2024, when the six to 12-month volume ratio experienced its first notable decline – consistent with patterns observed in previous cycles. The ratio now appears to be entering its second and final dip, potentially leading Bitcoin toward this cycle’s ultimate peak. Source: CryptoQuant BTC Holders Seeing Current Pullback As Temporary Multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin holders see the ongoing market correction as short-term. For example, recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Onchained revealed that short-term BTC holders are continuing to hold their coins despite being in a loss – possibly in anticipation of an upcoming bullish reversal. Related Reading Additionally, exchange net flow data points toward a potential price rally, indicating reduced selling pressure. At press time, BTC is trading at $82,086, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours. BTC trades at $82,086 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Shifting Sentiment? Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Stay Put Despite Losses
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, short-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are choosing to retain their digital assets despite incurring unrealized losses. CryptoQuant contributor Onchained explained that short-term BTC holders have recorded significantly lower realized losses compared to their unrealized losses. Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Expecting A Price Rally? The first quarter of 2025 has been marked by high price volatility in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. BTC has dropped from approximately $97,000 on January 1 to around $83,000 at the time of writing, reflecting a decline of more than 15%. Related Reading Despite this price pullback, short-term BTC holders continue to hold onto their assets instead of selling at a loss. CryptoQuant contributor Onchained analyzed the Short-Term Holder Net Realized PNL to Exchanges, highlighting a shift in selling behavior. According to the analyst, BTC holders who have owned their coins for one to three months have been the most active sellers in recent days, even at the cost of realizing losses. This is unusual, as short-term investors holding BTC for less than a week are typically the most reactive sellers. Source: CryptoQuant However, recent data shows a significant decline in selling pressure to cryptocurrency exchanges. This suggests that BTC holders who purchased their coins in the last six months are opting to hold onto their assets rather than panic sell. Source: CryptoQuant This shift in selling behavior among short-term holders could have multiple implications. A decline in selling pressure may indicate a change in investor sentiment, with holders willing to endure short-term losses in anticipation of long-term gains. While the analyst cautioned that this data does not predict future price movements, it does provide valuable insights into market psychology. The analysis states: Are short-term holders finally holding the line? If so, this could reduce downside volatility and set the stage for stabilization, or even a reversal. Onchained concluded that short-term holders currently control 28% of BTC’s circulating supply. If a significant portion of these holdings transitions to long-term holders, it could pave the way for Bitcoin’s price to surge beyond $150,000. Is BTC About To Stage A Comeback? Alongside the decline in short-term BTC selling pressure, several other exchange-related metrics suggest the possibility of an upcoming price surge for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Related Reading Recently, crypto entrepreneur and market commentator Arthur Hayes claimed that BTC “probably” hit this market cycle’s bottom during its plunge to $77,000 on March 10. However, Hayes noted that the stock market could still experience further pullbacks. While Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for the past few months, gold has surged to multiple new all-time highs (ATHs) due to ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainty. BTC’s poor performance against the precious metal is likely to continue as the US trade tariff threat looms. At press time, BTC trades at $83,953, up 2.2% in the past 24 hours. BTC trades at $83,953 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com