Bitcoin Slips Under 200-Day Moving Average – Will The Downtrend Continue?
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 11.3% over the past week, currently trading in the low $80,000 range at the time of writing. The recent decline has pushed the leading cryptocurrency below the 200-day moving average (MA), raising concerns about a potential deeper pullback. Bitcoin Must Defend This Key Price Level According to an X post by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, BTC is now trading below the 200-day MA, a key price level that has historically functioned as a strong support for the top digital asset. Related Reading For the uninitiated, the 200-day MA is a famous technical indicator that essentially represents the average closing price of BTC over the last 200 days to identify the long-term price trend. Historically, a sustained movement above the 200-day MA has led to long-term uptrends while a prolonged price movement below the level has often preceded further declines. Martinez stressed that BTC must remain above the TD Sequential indicator’s risk line at $79,280. He added that a sustained move above this level could set the stage for a strong rebound to the upside. Source: ali_charts on X The potential for a BTC recovery was echoed by fellow crypto analyst Ted. In a post on X, he pointed out that over the past two years, BTC has frequently undergone 25% to 30% corrections before rebounding to new all-time highs (ATHs). Ted noted: In 2023, BTC went from $30K to $22K. In 2024, BTC went from $74K to $50K. This year, BTC has dumped from $109K to $79K. We all know what happened after the last 2 major corrections. Source: Ted on X If BTC follows a similar pattern and climbs 30% from its current price, it could reach approximately $104,000 in a short period. However, broader macroeconomic factors – such as US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy – could significantly impact BTC’s trajectory. BTC Needs To Reclaim $84,000 First In another post on X, Martinez outlined BTC’s potential path to a new ATH, emphasizing that BTC must first reclaim $84,000 as a support level before any major upside movement. Once this milestone is secured, the digital asset could rally toward $128,000. Related Reading Several indicators suggest that BTC may have already found a local bottom, increasing the chances of a trend reversal. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently noted that BTC’s plunge to $78,258 could mark the cycle low. Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has just recorded one of its largest weekly breakdowns since 2013, a move that historically signals bullish momentum for risk-on assets like BTC. At press time, BTC trades at $80,137, down 3.5% in the past 24 hours. BTC trades at $80,137 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, charts from X and TradingView.com
Ethereum Holds Strong For Over A Year: Monthly Close Below This Level Could Be Catastrophic
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. Ethereum has struggled to gain momentum, remaining stuck below critical resistance for over a year. Despite multiple attempts, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been unable to break through key technical levels since the beginning of this year. Related Reading Ethereum’s price action over the past two weeks has shown more weakness. An interesting analysis from analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino shows that the cryptocurrency recently failed to break above a resistance indicator and is now at risk of more catastrophic price drops. Ethereum Fails To Breach Long-Term Resistance Tony “The Bull” Severino, in a technical analysis shared on social media platform X, highlighted Ethereum’s persistent failure to overcome major resistance levels. He pointed out that Ethereum has been unable to tag the quarterly (three-month) Parabolic SAR despite more than a year of attempts. This indicator, often used to determine the direction of an asset’s trend, shows that Ethereum is locked in a prolonged struggle against resistance on a larger downtrend. “This feels like it sends a message — resistance won’t be broken,” the analyst said. Image From X: Tony “The Bull” Severino Adding to the failure to break resistance, Tony Severino also noted in another analysis that Ethereum has repeatedly faced rejection from the quarterly (3M) SuperTrend dynamic resistance, further solidifying the case that buyers have been unable to regain control. Image From X: Tony “The Bull” Severino A Monthly Close Below $2,100 Could Be Catastrophic Ethereum’s inability to sustain key price levels has been a dominant theme in the past six months. Interestingly, this inability was shown further in the past two weeks. After failing to hold above $2,800, the cryptocurrency has seen a steady drop, losing multiple support zones along the way. Currently, Ethereum is trading below $2,200, edging dangerously close to breaking below the crucial $2,100 threshold. A drop beneath this level is particularly concerning, not just because it signifies the loss of yet another psychological support but because technical indicators suggest that a monthly close below $2,100 could have severe consequences. ETH is now trading at $2,141. Chart: TradingView One of the most significant warning signs comes from the quarterly Bollinger Bands indicator, which has tracked Ethereum’s price action since February 2022. According to this indicator, Ethereum has remained within a defined range, with the upper Bollinger Band currently positioned at $4,190 and the lower band at $2,098. The worrying part is that a monthly close below $2,100 would effectively translate to breaking beneath the lower Bollinger Band and removing a long-standing support level. Image From X: Tony “The Bull” Severino Related Reading At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,178, having gained 2.2% in the past 24 hours after starting the day at $2,120. Ethereum’s sentiment is now at its lowest level this year. The next few weeks will be crucial to see if Ethereum can reclaim lost ground and prevent a monthly close below $2,100. Featured image from Tech Magazine, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin Price Forecast: LTF Head And Shoulders Pattern Predicts Crash – Here’s The Target
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español. Tony Severino, a prominent crypto analyst, has shared a new Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that the pioneer cryptocurrency is on the verge of another major correction. The analyst suggested that the formation of a Lower Time Frame (LTF) Head and Shoulders pattern on the Bitcoin price chart is a potential confirmation of a crash to mid-$80,000. Bitcoin Price Projected To Crash To $83,600 The market’s recent downturn has negatively impacted Bitcoin’s value, prompting less-than-favorable predictions from top analysts. Severino posted on X (formerly Twitter) on March 6 that Bitcoin could soon experience another major pullback to new lows. Related Reading The analyst projected that Bitcoin could crash to $84,800 – $83,600. This bearish price outlook is supported by the recent formation of LTF Head and Shoulder pattern on the Bitcoin chart. A Head and Shoulder pattern is a technical analysis formation that usually indicates a potential reversal from bullish to bearish. It appears as three peaks on a price chart, with the middle peak, which is the head, being higher than the others (the shoulders). Notably, the Head and Shoulder pattern is considered one of the most recognizable patterns for projecting a downtrend in a cryptocurrency. In the case of Bitcoin, Severino’s chart illustrates a symmetrical triangle with an internal A-B-C-D-E wave-like structure. The black diagonal lines in the chart form the symmetrical triangle, which indicates lower highs and higher lows. Inside the triangle, red lines form the waves, suggesting that the Bitcoin price may be chopping sideways but with a bias towards completing the triangle. Due to the Head and Shoulder pattern formation, Bitcoin could see its price break down to the lower boundary of the triangle around the mid $80,000 region. This price crash would complete the D wave and possibly test the next critical support area. Once Bitcoin drops to this level, Severino predicts that it could bounce back to new highs. The chart shows that Bitcoin could rally toward the E wave in the triangle, which is positioned around the $90,000 price level. BTC is now trading at $86,315. Chart: TradingView Furthermore, the analyst’s Bitcoin chart indicates another deeper pullback after this price rebound to $90,000. Toward the right side of the chart, an arrow points downwards, suggesting that after the final E wave rally, Bitcoin could drop down towards $83,600 to $80,200. Analyst Warns Of Bear Trap Before Bull Run Finale While many in the crypto market label this massive decline in the Bitcoin price as the beginning of the bear market, others believe that this price crash could be a mere bear trap. A market expert known as ’Crypto Caesar’ predicted that Bitcoin would be on the verge of its final bear trap before entering the last phase of this bull cycle. Related Reading This implies that Bitcoin is likely to face another sharp decline, shaking out weak hands before surging to a new all-time high. The analyst’s chart predicts that it could top out above $110,000, signaling the end of the bull market. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Ethereum Flashing Bullish Signals, But Rising Exchange Reserves Raise Concerns – Details
Este artículo también está disponible en español. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is flashing multiple bullish signals that suggest a potential upside move. However, rising exchange reserves are tempering this optimism. Has Ethereum Formed A Local Bottom? Ethereum has dropped nearly 20% over the past two weeks, falling from approximately $2,805 on February 23 to just above $2,200 at the time of writing. This decline has wiped out $80 billion from ETH’s market cap. Related Reading Despite this sharp pullback, crypto analysts are pointing to several bullish indicators that could signal an impending price reversal. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, for instance, has highlighted that ETH is following the Wyckoff Reaccumulation Pattern. For those unfamiliar, the Wyckoff Reaccumulation Pattern is a technical analysis method developed by Richard Wyckoff. In the context of ETH’s current price action, this pattern suggests that the asset may be entering an accumulation phase before a potential upward movement. The analyst further noted that the “spring phase” has just been triggered – indicating a possible bear trap where a brief dip below support levels misleads sellers, potentially setting the stage for a rally. A bounce from this level could see ETH climb to $4,000. Source: Merlijn The Trader on X In a separate X post, Merlijn The Trader also pointed to a bullish divergence in Ethereum’s 4-hour chart. According to the analyst, ETH’s next immediate target is $2,700 before moving higher. Fellow crypto analyst CryptoGoos echoed these sentiments. Source: Cryptogoos on X Beyond technical indicators, whale activity has added to the bullish sentiment surrounding ETH. In an X post, crypto analyst Ted noted: Ethereum whale bought 17,855 ETH worth $36,000,000 at an average price of $2,054. Total holding $2,530,000,000 Ethereum. You think this is going down? Think again. Rising Exchange Reserves May Spoil The Party On the bearish side, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that ETH reserves on exchanges have been steadily rising. Over the past two weeks, more than 610,000 ETH has been transferred to exchanges, which could increase selling pressure. Source: ali_charts on X Martinez’s analysis aligns with a recent report that found that despite ETH’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at a multi-year low, there could still be further downside in store for the digital currency. Related Reading Indeed, ETH has been marred by significant bearish sentiment due to its relatively weak price performance over the past two years compared to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP. However, extreme bearish sentiment could act as a contrarian signal, setting the stage for a surprise rally. At press time, ETH trades at $2,200, up 6% in the past 24 hours. ETH trades at $2,200 on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, charts from X and Tradingview.com
Ethereum Must Hold This Key Level To Keep Altseason Hopes Alive, Analyst Explains
Este artículo también está disponible en español. In an X post published today, crypto market analyst and commentator Ali Martinez highlighted a crucial Ethereum (ETH) price level that must hold to sustain hopes for an altseason. Martinez warned that losing this support could significantly derail any potential altcoin rally. Ethereum Must Defend Key Price Level Ethereum, the second-largest digital asset by market cap, continues to trade in the mid-$2,000 range. At the time of writing, ETH is priced just below $2,700, offering bulls a glimmer of optimism for a potential breakout above the $3,000 resistance level. Related Reading However, in his latest analysis, Martinez emphasized the $2,600 level as a critical price point for ETH. He added that if the digital asset falls below this level, then “altseason will be canceled.” Source: ali_charts on X The recent Bybit crypto exchange hack sent shockwaves across the cryptocurrency industry as hackers stole digital assets worth more than $1.4 billion. Notably, ETH accounted for the bulk of the stolen funds. Despite this, ETH held up relatively well compared to Bitcoin (BTC), according to fellow crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades. The analyst pointed out that ETH’s ability to remain at essentially the same price level after such a massive hack is “interesting.” They added: To see ETH at basically the same level as before a $1B+ hack is pretty interesting. Would not be surprised it there’s indeed some entity buying back some of that lost ETH or people frontrunning such a thing. At some point the ETH likely has to get back somehow, whether it’s recovered or bought back. Otherwise there would not be a 100% cover of funds. Crypto analyst Ted echoed this sentiment in his own analysis of the Bybit hack. In an X post, he highlighted that not only did the hack fail to push ETH to new lows, but the cryptocurrency has already rebounded 35% from its bottom. Source: Ted on X Meanwhile, crypto trader Merlijn The Trader provided some hope for ETH bulls, sharing a three-week Ethereum chart that suggests ETH is poised to break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern for its “biggest bull run yet.” Altseason In Jeopardy? Seasoned crypto analyst Rekt Capital also weighed in, sharing a daily altcoin market cap chart that shows altcoins failing to close above key resistance levels, highlighted in red circles. They explained: Altcoin Market Cap is transitioning into this triangular market structure (blue). Alts will need to daily close above the blue lower high and then above black resistance to confirm a major trend shift. Source: Rekt Capital on X Related Reading That said, there may still be hope for an impending altseason led by Ethereum. A recent report found that ETH reserves on crypto exchanges are at a nine-year low, which could exacerbate supply scarcity and drive up prices. At press time, ETH trades at $2,671, down 5.2% in the past 24 hours. ETH trades at $2,671 on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
Is Bitcoin Showing Early Signs Of Bullish Divergence? Analyst Explains
Este artículo también está disponible en español. According to a recent post on X by crypto analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin (BTC) may finally be showing early signs of bullish divergence. If this pattern plays out, BTC could target the $101,000 level as its first milestone before moving higher. Bitcoin Showing Signs Of Bullish Divergence? Analyst Weighs In Since the beginning of February, the flagship cryptocurrency has endured multiple macroeconomic uncertainties, including US President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish statements, and the stock market downturn triggered by the release of China’s DeepSeek AI model. Related Reading Despite these challenges, BTC has remained range-bound between $93,000 and $98,000. However, early signs of a potential bullish divergence are beginning to emerge. Rekt Capital pointed out BTC’s repeated failure to achieve a successful daily close above the $97,700 level, forcing it to find support around $93,000 at the lower end of its trading channel. While BTC continues to consolidate within this tight range, it is displaying a bullish divergence, as the cryptocurrency’s relative strength index (RSI) has formed a higher low on the daily chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X In this context, bullish divergence occurs when the price continues making lower lows while the RSI reverses course and forms a higher low. This momentum shift often signals an impending trend reversal, potentially propelling BTC toward the crucial $100,000 level. However, not all analysts are convinced that BTC is out of the woods just yet. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader shared his perspective on BTC’s price action, emphasizing how the top cryptocurrency recently touched the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $93,500. They cautioned: Historically, closing below this level often means a drop to the 200EMA—currently at $86k. But until the daily 100EMA breaks, there’s no need for panic. Stay sharp, the market is at a pivotal point! Will BTC Fill The CME Gap? Meanwhile, crypto market analyst CryptoBullet pointed to a CME gap from November that BTC may need to fill before resuming its upward momentum. The analyst highlighted a double-top formation, which could lead BTC to retrace down to $76,000 to close the gap. Source: CryptoBullet on X Related Reading For those unfamiliar, the “CME gap” refers to a price difference on CME’s Bitcoin futures chart that arises when trading pauses for the weekend while BTC continues moving on other exchanges. These gaps often attract price action, as traders anticipate a revisit due to liquidity, technical factors, and market psychology. On a more optimistic note, Bitwise executives maintain that Bitcoin currently offers a “generational opportunity” despite the ongoing global macroeconomic turmoil. At press time, BTC trades at $96,168, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours. BTC trades at $96,168 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
Ethereum Positioned For A ‘Major Move Upward’ In 2025, Analyst Forecasts
Este artículo también está disponible en español. According to crypto analyst Titan of Crypto, Ethereum (ETH) could be on the verge of a “major move upward” this year as it continues to form higher lows on the weekly chart. However, breaking through the persistent $4,000 resistance level remains a key hurdle for the cryptocurrency, before it goes on to create new highs. Ethereum On The Brink Of A Massive Rally? While frustration may be getting the better of ETH holders due to the digital asset’s below par price performance over the past two years, there could still be a chance to witness a complete turnaround in ETH’s price trajectory. Related Reading In a post on X, Titan of Crypto shared the following ETH weekly chart, illustrating how the digital asset has been consistently forming higher lows since 2022. If ETH maintains this trend, it could soon break through the crucial $4,000 level and potentially set new all-time highs (ATH) later this year. Source: Titan of Crypto on X The analyst also applied Fibonacci extensions to estimate potential price targets, with the most optimistic projections reaching as high as $13,000 in 2026. Crypto trader Ted shared a similar outlook on ETH’s price action. According to Ted, once ETH reclaims the $4,000 mark, it could soon surpass its previous ATH. He further predicted that ETH could surge to $9,000 within 3 to 4 months. Additionally, he noted that US President Donald Trump’s recent ETH purchases could provide further upside momentum for the digital asset. Indeed, Trump’s decentralized finance (DeFi) project dubbed World Liberty Financial (WLF) has been on an ETH buying spree. In December 2024, WLF bought 722 ETH, worth $2.5 million at the prevailing market price. Technical analysis trader Alex Clay also sees ETH’s current downtrend as a potential buying opportunity. Clay highlighted that ETH has not only completed its falling wedge pattern but also successfully defended the $3,000 support level. He added: Time to reverse the short-term trend! Send $ETH to $4,000, $4,500, $5,000. Source: Alex Clay on X ETH: An Overcrowded Trade? While the above analyses may offer hope to ETH traders, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez cautions that the bullish head-and-shoulder pattern on ETH’s daily chart could be turning into an overcrowded trade. He added: If the pattern holds, any dip to $2,900 could be a buying opportunity, but keep your stop-loss tight between $2,700 and $2,500. Related Reading That said, crypto analyst Mister Crypto recently remarked that Ethereum has “likely bottomed out” and could be on the verge of a breakout to the upside. At press time, ETH trades at $3,095, down 2.2% in the past 24 hours. ETH trades at $3,095 on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from Unsplash, charts from X and Tradingview.com Source link
Gold prices dip in face of strengthening US Dollar
Gold slightly down in late trading, still up 0.40% for the week amid geopolitical tensions. Mixed US economic data; higher Housing Starts, lower Building Permits minimally impact Bullion. Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments suggest potential for early rate cuts. Gold’s price dropped late in the North American session, but it is set to finish the week with gains of over 0.40% as market players await the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. Although the XAU/USD trades at $2,701, down 0.44%, investors continued to buy the golden metal due to political uncertainty. The precious metal continues to be driven by geopolitics and politics in the United States (US). Although US Treasury bond yields in the belly of the curve remained unchanged, Bullion buyers failed to push prices higher to book additional gains ahead of the weekend. The US economic schedule showed that Housing Starts jumped double digits, though Building Permits contracted in December. Gold barely reacted to the news, as most of the data revealed during the week, led by Retail Sales featured on Thursday, suggest the economy is solid. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s performance against a basket of six peers, surged 0.35% to 109.34. Other data revealed during the Asian session showed that China’s economy hit a 5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller tilted dovish and commented that the US central bank could lower borrowing costs sooner and faster if the disinflation process evolves. Market participants are pricing in near-even odds that the Fed will cut rates twice by the end of 2025 and see the first reduction in June. Source: Prime Market Terminal Next week, the US economic docket will feature the US Presidential Inauguration, the release of Initial Jobless Claims and Flash PMIs data. Daily digest market movers: Gold price pressured ahead of the weekend Gold fell as real yields remained firm on Friday. Measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, was virtually unchanged at 2.18%. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield was unchanged at 4.618%, a headwind for the golden metal. US Housing Starts jumped from 1.294 million to 1.499 million in December, a jump of 15.8% MoM. Building Permits for the same period shrank as permits dipped from 1.493 million to 1.483 million, a 0.7% drop. The latest inflation data and Fed Waller’s comments pressured the US Dollar, as traders had grown confident the Fed would cut rates sooner rather than later. Waller didn’t rule out a cut in the March meeting as inflation “is getting close to what our 2% inflation target would be.” XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold hold firm near $2,700 Gold prices fell amid the lack of catalysts ahead of the weekend. Nonetheless, buyers must keep XAU/USD’s prices above $2,700, so they can remain hopeful of pushing the yellow metal toward the December 12 high of $2,726. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $2,750, followed by the all-time high at $2,790. On the other hand, buyers’ failure to achieve the previously mentioned outcome could mean Gold might test the January 13 swing low of $2,656, followed by the confluence of the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $2,639 – $2,642. Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. Source link
Momentum Trading in Technical Analysis
Momentum Trading in Technical Analysis In this article, we will explain Momentum Trading which you can apply in Forex and Stock market in your technical analysis. Momentum Trading is popular in volatile markets, aiming to capitalize on short-term trends. The fundamental idea behind the momentum trading is to identify trends with sufficient force behind them. However, just understanding momentum trading won’t let you become rich as everyone or everytrader understand that. To go beyond other traders, you also need to understand the concept of Excessive Momentum in the momentum trading strategy. Momentum trading is the trading technique applying to make money by trading stocks along with a trend. For example, if a stock is soaring after releasing a suprise earnings report, a momentum trader might try to buy shares and ride the stock’s price higher. In this article, we will extend this momentum trading concept further to touch excessive momentum. We will show you how to apply this excessive momentum for your trading as well as covering the volume spread analysis. Possible Momentum Pattern in the Market Then let us think about where the profit comes from ? Profit comes when we catch the regular or predictable movement in the market. That is something we can analyze and can make use to predict the next movement of the financial market. These five regularities shown in the Figure 1 are typically what traders are looking to catch in their trading. We highly emphasize to look for or focus on the fifth regularity in your practical trading. The fifth regularity says that the price in the financial market will move in the zigzag path. Mathematically, this is described as fractal wave or repeating patterns. Fundamentally these happens to balance the supply and demand force. Now, here is the important bits. You can consider that the wave patterns descriped here are the possible trajectory of the momentum in the market. In practice, you will see the multiple of these wave patterns in action. Sometimes, these wave patterns are combined or superimposed among different scale of these wave patterns. In the typical or ordinary momentum trading, we look for the direction only and ignore the individual wave patterns. However, we do recommend to use direction and wave patterns in your trading for better profit. Next, we will introduce the concept of excessive momentum as part of the advanced momentum trading strategy. In the excessive momentum, you will understand why wave pattern matters to catch good momentum trading opportunity. Figure 1: Price Pattern table listing the market dynamics in five categories. Introduction to Excessive Momentum Trading Excessive momentum is the technique to identify unusually strong supply or unusually strong demand by analyzing the price series. Why do we need to care about the unusually strong supply or unusually strong demand in our trading? It is because unusually strong supply or unusually strong demand are the sign of the end of the current trend ( or birth of new trend). As you probably guess, when the new trend is born, you can ride the highest profit as possible. Hence, the excessive momentum can provide you the attractive entries for your trading. Now probably you are starting to make some sense. That is good. Your intuition will start to tell you that this excessive momentum can provide good trading opportunity. When the balance is broken marginally, we can consider it as the market anomaly. Two potential causes can drive the occurrences of Excessive momentum. Firstly, the excessive momentum could be caused by some irrational price reaction like the late comers buying stocks after the stock have gone up too much. Secondly, the excessive momentum could be caused by strong belief of the crowd that the price will continue to go in the same direction. Whichever scenario is driving the excessive momentum, it is where we can observe the crowd psychology clearly. Excessive momentum provides the good market timing. We will also confirm that with the volume spread analysis to make further sense with excessive momentum trading. Figure 2: Excessive momentum with too strong demand Figure 3: Excessive momentum with too strong supply To explain the associated trading strategy with Excessive momentum, it is best to point out the four-market phase concept by Richard D. Wickoff (1873-1934). His framework is widely known as the Volume Spread Analysis. His four-market phase description is the most interesting subject among many traders. It is one of the most intuitive explanation behind the market dynamics. The four-market phase includes accumulation, mark up, distribution and mark down (Figure 4). Four-market phase is the systematic view of market cycle. Volume spread analysis further extends accumulation and distribution areas into sub phase A, B, C, D and E (Figure 6 and Figure 7). These sub phase zone looks like some sort of sideways market. To be honest, I do not use the sub phase A, B, C, D and E for my trading because identifying these phase can be subjective and it is difficult to achieve them in systematic manner. Our focus here is more on accumulation and distribution area, the pattern made up from supply and demand fluctuations. I believe that accumulation and distribution area can serve as useful entries in our trading operation. One thing trader should know is that Wyckoff Price Cycle is schematic and conceptual. In real world, we can not expect accumulation and distribution to arrive in turn always. Be more realistic. Figure 4 is only schematic diagram. In real world, any stock price can go up, rest and can go up again for fundamental reason. Likewise, stock price can go down, rest and can go down further. We can not expect that accumulation will always arrive after distribution. In fact, we can have as many accumulations as possible after accumulation. We can also have as many distributions as possible after distribution. I have drawn more realistic view of accumulation and distribution to prevent newbie’s getting wrong picture on the market behaviour around accumulation and distribution area (Figure